Methodology
Every number on this site is calculated ahead of time from public data and published as static pages. Data last generated: September 2026. Built and maintained by Madhu at Marava Tech.
Data sources
- Temperature, rain and humidity: 30 years of daily records, 1996 to 2025, from the Open-Meteo Historical Weather API (ERA5 reanalysis, CC BY 4.0). This is modelled grid data for one point per destination, not a weather station reading.
- Sea temperature: the Open-Meteo Marine API. Its record is short, so sea temperature is a recent average, not a 30 year climate.
- Tropical storms: the NOAA National Hurricane Center HURDAT2 best-track database, public domain.
Definitions
- Rain day: a day with at least 0.04 inches (about 1 mm) of rain. It is often a short shower, so read it with the monthly rainfall total.
- Monthly averages: each calendar day is averaged across all years, then rolled up into months.
- Storm day: a day since 1985 when a system at tropical storm or hurricane strength passed within 150 km of the destination point. Weaker depressions are not counted. Several 6-hourly hits on one day count once.
- Storm risk label: a relative band (none observed, low, elevated, high) built from the storm day counts. It is a way to compare months, not a probability.
Trip odds
The calculator takes each calendar day in your dates and looks up how often it rained on that day across the 30 years. The chance of at least one rain day treats each day as independent. Real rain clusters into multi-day systems, so this slightly understates the true risk. It runs in your browser, and your dates are not sent anywhere.
How destinations are ranked by month
The best beach destinations pages score each destination as its rain days plus a storm penalty: 0 for none observed, 1 for low, 3 for elevated and 6 for high. Lower is better. Temperature is displayed but not scored, because ideal heat is personal. The ranking is a simple, transparent guide, not a verdict.
Limits
- These are climate averages, not a forecast. Any single year can differ a lot.
- One point per destination: microclimates, such as the two sides of an island, are not captured.
- Sargassum, water clarity, crowds and prices are not measured here.
Points used
| Destination | Latitude, longitude | Sea record |
|---|---|---|
| Cancún | 21.161, -86.851 | ~4 years |
| Cabo San Lucas | 22.891, -109.917 | ~4 years |
| Punta Cana | 18.582, -68.404 | ~4 years |
| Aruba | 12.524, -70.027 | ~4 years |
| Orlando | 28.538, -81.379 | inland |
| Jamaica (Montego Bay) | 18.472, -77.919 | ~4 years |
| Maui | 20.799, -156.331 | ~4 years |
| Puerto Vallarta | 20.653, -105.225 | ~4 years |
Corrections
Found a number that looks wrong? Email hello@beachweatherbymonth.com.