How the monthly ranking works
Each destination gets a score for each month: its average number of rain days plus a penalty for tropical storm history (0 for none observed, 1 for low, 3 for elevated, 6 for high). The lowest score wins. Rain days come from 30 years of daily records, and storm history from hurricane tracks since 1985 that passed within 150 km of the destination. Temperature is shown on every page but not scored, because how much heat is ideal depends on you.
That means the "top pick" for a month is the destination most likely to give you dry days and the least exposure to storms, not necessarily the prettiest or the cheapest. A month can have a clear winner or a close race, so the table below shows the top three for every month with their rain days. Where the top three are separated by less than a day of rain, treat them as a tie and decide on other things, such as flight cost or how you feel about crowds.
Top three destinations for every month
| Month | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | Cabo San Lucas, 0.9 rain days | Puerto Vallarta, 1.8 rain days | Orlando, 6.1 rain days |
| February | Cabo San Lucas, 0.7 rain days | Puerto Vallarta, 1.9 rain days | Orlando, 6.8 rain days |
| March | Cabo San Lucas, 0.2 rain days | Puerto Vallarta, 1 rain days | Aruba, 5.4 rain days |
| April | Cabo San Lucas, 0.1 rain days | Puerto Vallarta, 0.3 rain days | Aruba, 5.3 rain days |
| May | Cabo San Lucas, 0.2 rain days | Puerto Vallarta, 1.3 rain days | Aruba, 5.3 rain days |
| June | Cabo San Lucas, 0.9 rain days | Aruba, 6.7 rain days | Puerto Vallarta, 15.1 rain days |
| July | Cabo San Lucas, 3.3 rain days | Aruba, 7.6 rain days | Cancún, 17 rain days |
| August | Aruba, 7.8 rain days | Cabo San Lucas, 8.1 rain days | Maui, 17.3 rain days |
| September | Aruba, 10.3 rain days | Cabo San Lucas, 9.1 rain days | Maui, 16.2 rain days |
| October | Cabo San Lucas, 2.8 rain days | Orlando, 9.7 rain days | Maui, 17.1 rain days |
| November | Cabo San Lucas, 1.4 rain days | Puerto Vallarta, 3.2 rain days | Orlando, 5.3 rain days |
| December | Cabo San Lucas, 0.7 rain days | Puerto Vallarta, 2 rain days | Orlando, 5.4 rain days |
Using these rankings
Start with your travel month, open its page, and compare the destinations side by side on rain days, temperature, sea temperature and storm risk. Then open the destination itself to see the full year and use the trip odds tool to check the chance of rain on your exact dates. Shoulder months often look best on paper, but a single wet week in a typically dry month is still possible, so treat a good ranking as favorable odds rather than a guarantee.
These figures are climate averages, not a forecast. They say nothing about sargassum, water clarity, crowds or prices, and each destination is measured at a single point, so the two sides of an island can differ. Read the methodology for the full definitions and limits, and check a live forecast a week before you fly.